Tracks whether Canada's economic foundations are accelerating or decelerating. Not where we are — where we're going.
The Canada Momentum Index is a composite macroeconomic instrument that measures whether Canada's structural economic foundations are accelerating or decelerating over time. It is built entirely from public Statistics Canada data and tracks five pillars: real GDP per capita, labour productivity, export diversification, business investment per worker, and business R&D intensity. The index is updated quarterly as new data becomes available and is designed to be non-partisan, transparent, and fully reproducible.
Unlike traditional economic indicators that measure absolute levels or rankings, Canada Momentum measures direction — specifically, whether recent trends are outpacing long-run baselines. A score above 50 indicates structural acceleration. A score below 50 indicates deceleration. A score near 50 means the economy is tracking its own long-term trend.
For each of the five pillars, a 4-quarter rolling average is applied to smooth noise. Then two rolling linear regressions are computed: a 3-year (12-quarter) slope capturing medium-term direction, and a 10-year (40-quarter) slope capturing the long-run baseline. The structural momentum is the difference between these slopes — positive means the recent trajectory exceeds the long-run trend.
Each pillar's momentum is standardized to a z-score and bounded using the hyperbolic tangent function, producing a comparable score between −1 and +1. The composite index is the equal-weighted average of all five pillar scores, scaled to a 0–100 range where 50 represents structural neutrality. No subjective adjustments are applied.
The Canada Momentum Index computes a single composite score each quarter by measuring the acceleration or deceleration of five structural economic pillars relative to their own long-run trends.
Real GDP per Capita — Expenditure-based GDP in chained dollars divided by quarterly population estimates. Captures per-person wealth creation, removing population growth distortion. Source: Tables 36-10-0104-01 and 17-10-0009-01.
Labour Productivity — Output per hour worked in the business sector. The core driver of long-run prosperity and competitiveness. Source: Table 36-10-0206-01.
Export Diversification — An inverted Herfindahl-Hirschman Index computed from quarterly merchandise exports by trading partner. Higher scores indicate less concentration risk. Source: Table 12-10-0011-01.
Business Investment per Worker — Non-residential gross fixed capital formation divided by quarterly average employment. A proxy for capital deepening and future productive capacity. Sources: Tables 36-10-0108-01 and 14-10-0287-01.
Business R&D Intensity — Business enterprise research and development expenditure as a share of GDP. A direct measure of investment in future capability. Source: Table 27-10-0273-01. Annual data, forward-filled across quarters.
For each pillar, a 4-quarter rolling average is applied to reduce noise. Two rolling linear regressions are then computed: a 3-year (12-quarter) short-run slope and a 10-year (40-quarter) long-run slope. The structural momentum is the difference. When the short-run slope exceeds the long-run slope, the pillar is accelerating relative to its own baseline.
The Nowcast uses the same methodology but substitutes a 1-year (4-quarter) slope for the 3-year slope. This produces a faster-moving signal that is more responsive to recent shifts in direction. Both signals share the same 10-year baseline.
Each pillar's momentum value is standardized to a z-score across its full history, then bounded via tanh(z/2). This produces a score in the range [−1, +1] that is comparable across pillars and resistant to extreme outliers such as the COVID-19 shock.
The composite index is the equal-weighted average of all five pillar scores, scaled to 0–100 where 50 represents structural neutrality. Equal weighting is a deliberate design choice to avoid embedding policy bias into the instrument.
Full historical series are recomputed on each data refresh to incorporate Statistics Canada revisions. Historical values may change slightly as source data is revised. All source tables are publicly available at statcan.gc.ca.